WTC 2023-25 Scenarios: Five teams are vying for a spot in the finals.
The WTC 2023-2025 cycle has been marked by more volatility, a greater mix of results, and an increased importance of consistency across the entire cycle rather than just a few key series. The rise of new contenders, such as South Africa and New Zealand, has also reshaped the competitive landscape, making the race to the final more open than ever before. Another notable difference is the evolving approach to home and away conditions, with teams like India and Australia facing unprecedented challenges in their own backyards, disrupting traditional home dominance.
Over a past three weeks there have been many shocking results which have caused significant changes in the WTC standings.
South Africa won 2-0 against Bangladesh and New Zealand whitewashed India 3-0 have made strong pushes for a spot in the finals. Meanwhile India, who were comfortably sitting at top spot after their 2-0 victory over Bangladesh, have now been overtaken by Australia.
With seven series left to be played in this cycle, five teams will have their fate to make to the finals.
WTC 2023-25 Scenarios: Standings after India vs New Zealand series
WTC 2023-25 Scenarios: Here is how things stand for top five teams
India:
India have 1 series left in this cycle against Australia on Australian soil. India need to win by a margin of 4-0 at least and get their PCT above 65% which will secure their spot in the finals. If India lose by 2-3 score line down under, they will still be pipped by Australia even if Australia lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka.
Australia:
Australia have 2 series left in this cycle and they will be playing against India (5 matches) on their own soil and against Sri Lanka (2 matches) in Sri Lanka. The calculations are not easy for them even if Australia win 4-0 against India but lose 0-2 against Sri Lanka, they will be surpassed by New Zealand (if they beast England 3-0) and Sri Lanka (if they beat South Africa 2-0).
South Africa:
South Africa will host Sri Lanka (2 matches) and Pakistan (2 matches) which gives them home advantage and bolster their chances further. Winning all four tests guarantees a spot in the finals with 69.4% as only Australia can then catch up them on points (given they win against India and Sri Lanka). Three wins in four will also help them finish with 61% which gives them more than a fair chance but they will need other teams to lose.
New Zealand:
New Zealand will host England (3 matches). Things are not easy for Kiwis as even if they win 3-0 against England their PCT will be 64.3% and one of South Africa and Sri Lanka and either of Australia or India can still go past them. If South Africa-Sri Lanka series end in 1-1, neither of them can surpass New Zealand and only one among India or Australia can pip them which is enough for New Zealand to guarantee a spot in the finals.
Sri Lanka:
Sri Lanka have done well to climb the charts with three back to back wins against England and New Zealand and have four matches to play. If they win all 4 remaining matches their PCT will be 69.2% which can only be bettered by India if they win BGT 5-0. Three wins in four will help them finish with 61% but they would need other results go in their favor.